Professor Emeritus of Political Science Jack Fleer, who retired in 2002, is an expert on North Carolina politics and has written extensively on North Carolina's governors, most recently in his 2007 book, “Governors Speak.”
The 'other' race
Jack Fleer on North Carolina's tight governor's race
While the country's attention has been focused on the historic presidential election that will result in either the first African-American president or the first female vice president, North Carolina voters could elect the state's first female governor. Professor Emeritus of Political Science Jack Fleer handicaps the North Carolina governor's race, examines the candidates' strategies and advertising, and looks ahead to the challenges the winner faces.
With less than a month until the election, handicap the race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and her Republican challenger, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.
At this point, the race is a tossup, too close to call. The race involves two strong candidates with extended experience who are articulate spokespersons for their political parties, are practical problem solvers and non-ideological leaders.
A key question is will McCrory's “The Difference is Leadership” theme resonate more with voters than Perdue's extensive experience with and knowledge of state policies and politics. Will McCrory's call for change from 16 years of Democratic governors attract an electoral majority?
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Another key question is how well each candidate and party will mobilize their supporters (partisans and independents). The Democratic Party has a slight advantage due to its recent success in gubernatorial contests, the greater new Democratic voter registration in the state, and the close presidential election in North Carolina, where enthusiasm for Senator Obama appears greater than for Senator McCain within their respective political parties.
If Beverly Perdue is elected, she will be the first female ever elected governor in North Carolina. Is North Carolina behind other states in that regard?
Twenty-six women have served as governors in twenty-one states since 1975, when the first woman governor was elected in her own right. Few women have been elected to statewide executive offices in North Carolina, the first in 1996. So few women have had the prior political experience to be viable candidates for the office of governor. Three southern states have had a governor who is female.
The election of Pat McCrory would be a “first” too, right?
No city mayor has been directly elected from that office to be governor in the state. It is unusual for a city mayor to be a party nominee for governor in North Carolina, and across the nation. It is more common for a governor to have experience in another statewide office, the state legislature or the U.S. Senate or House.
What's your assessment of each campaign?
McCrory's consistent campaign theme in both his party primary and the general election is “The Difference is Leadership!” Perdue says: “North Carolina's Future Begins Now!” The former is more directly related to the candidate's claimed qualities. The latter is more vague on the candidate or her policies.
Perdue's central message, however, is that her extended experience in state political offices and with state public policies is an advantage in securing the future she envisions. “Leadership” versus “Visionary Experience,” according to the candidates, is the voters' choice.
Haven't both campaigns been overly negative?
Both have used positive and negative ads. Each candidate has conducted a substantive policy oriented campaign in which they talk about their accomplishments in office and policy initiatives they will favor if elected.
Negative ads do attract voters' attention, are more likely remembered by voters and publicized by media and can mobilize supporters. However, when they are perceived as “out of bounds” or not credible, they can generate public criticism and fuel voter backlash. Candidates need to select their messages carefully to achieve maximum electoral benefit at the polls, while retaining integrity and credibility.
Current Governor Mike Easley, a Democrat, seems to be noticeably absent from supporting Perdue?
Governor Easley did endorse Perdue immediately after she was nominated. He has not been involved in her campaign much since then. She has been implicitly critical of his leadership style by saying that she would be a more visible and activist leader.
North Carolina governors have not been successful in influencing the choice of their successors over the past six decades. They have rarely been able to determine their party's gubernatorial nominee and never the election of a successor, as written in “Governors Speak.”
Throughout his tenure, Mike Easley has been a less “public” leader than his immediate predecessors and less involved in the state's Democratic Party. Both Lieutenant Governor Perdue and Mayor McCrory have said they will be more visible and “hands-on” public and political leaders-a role that is more typical among contemporary state governors as discussed in “Governors Speak.”
Why does North Carolina tend to vote Republican in presidential elections and Democrat in state elections?
Republican candidates have an advantage in statewide federal elections (U.S. President and U.S. Senate). Democrat Party candidates have the edge in statewide elections for governor and Council of State. In the former, the state's more conservative interests prevail. In the latter, its progressive tendencies are stronger.
In nine of the last ten presidential elections (1968-2004), Republican presidential candidates have won the state's electoral votes. Only Jimmy Carter has broken this pattern. In seven of the 10 most recent gubernatorial elections, Democratic Party candidates have emerged victorious. Republicans Jim Holshouser (1972) and Jim Martin (1984, 1988) disrupted the Democrats monopoly. In nine of 12 U.S. Senate elections between 1972 and 2004, Republican candidates have won in North Carolina. However, the margins of victory have been narrow in many of these contests, unless an incumbent candidate is running.
No state in the United States has been as politically competitive as North Carolina in the past two decades. These differences can be explained in part by the type of personal attributes typical of candidates for each of the three offices, the issues that are important in each contest, and the candidates' relative ability to mobilize their supporters.
Voters' expectations vary from office to office. With the state's intense two-party competitiveness since the 1970s and the narrow margins of victory in many elections, small increments of voters can result in candidates from different political parties being elected at the same time. In most cases, suburban swing voters are the key to electoral success in North Carolina.
What are the major issues the next governor will face?
Improving public education, especially kindergarten through 12th grade, since it consumes approximately 40 percent of the General Fund budget.
Workforce preparedness and job creation in a more varied and dynamic state economy. North Carolina continues its transition from an economy based on agriculture and manufacturing to one of services, banking, insurance and health care.
Providing health care that is more affordable and accessible for state citizens. Medicaid receives approximately 24 percent of the state's budget resources.
Infrastructure maintenance and improvement (highways, bridges, environmental sustainability, mass transportation) for a rapidly expanding state population.
